We have a packed episode this week. We talk about about a recent article by the economist Richard Saillant where he provides his thoughts on COVID-19’s potential impact on the New Brunswick economy. I discuss what appear to be labour shortages in certain occupations even as we are witnessing record unemployment. Finally, recognizing there will be a world after COVID-19 we chat about how to optimize economic development in Atlantic Canada. Hope you enjoy.
Look for Growing Pains with David Campbell wherever you get your podcasts. We hope to have a special guest on next week. Keep your questions and ideas flowing in. We will try to address as many of them as we can.
What do you make of this article by a political economist in Foreign Affairs a day or two ago
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-03-30/us-economy-uniquely-vulnerable-coronavirus
I think it is right on point. The US and Canada have very substantial welfare states so the public feels more inclined to rack up household debt to fund lifestyle choices. My wife is from Brazil and although household debt is rising there it is still well below the level here (particularly relative to savings) because they don’t have that safety net – most of them pay a significant amount for private health care, private schools, etc. and even public pensions (with the exception of public sector) are well below the levels here – relative to income levels. So, we have an economy heavily reliant on household consumption + very high levels of household debt and a relatively low savings rate. Coming out of this – in the medium term governments will have to bring down annual deficits again limiting their impact on GDP growth.