Between 1987 and 1997, the years when Frank McKenna was Premier the provincial workforce expanded by 32,000 people and total employment increased by 29,800. Real GDP grew by 11.3%.
Between 1999 and 2006, when Bernard Lord was Premier, the workforce expanded by 21,400 and total employment grew by 24,700. Real GDP grew by 17.8%.
Between 2006 and 2010 when Shawn Graham was Premier the provincial workforce expanded by 10,400 and total employment by 7,700. Real GDP grew by 2.1%.
Between 2010 and 2014, during Premier Alward’s term, the provincial workforce shrunk by 1,300 and total employment dropped by 4,200. Real GDP declined by 0.7%.
Between 2014 and 2015, the provincial workforce has declined by 2,800 and total employment is down 2,100. We don’t know the final tally for 2015 GDP yet – we are expecting a marginally positive number but not outstanding.
I wonder how many people out there still don’t see a connection between the trajectory of the workforce and economic growth?
By the way, if I put up the national numbers you would see roughly the same correlation – the only difference is the workforce nationally has been growing rapidly in line roughly with GDP growth. Between 2008 and 2015, New Brunswick’s workforce declined by 4,100. The national workforce increased over the same timeframe by 1.16 million.
And most of the net growth was made up of immigrants. FYI.
I think it would be interesting to strip out public sector GDP (admin, health, and education) and see what growth and employment over those periods looked like. Might give a better picture of the province’s growth/lack there of. Right now with very small gains in GDP but fewer people working it makes you wonder how much of the little GDP growth that took place is wage growth in the public sector.