Good news on the NB jobs front

Is the employment picture finally starting to improve in New Brunswick in a substantive way?  It could be but I think it is too early to tell.  As you will see in the first chart below, total employment in June is up 5,600 in New Brunswick – a solid increase of 1.6 percent.  However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, that still only brings us back to slightly more jobs than in June 2006.  In June 2006, there were 351,400 working and in June 2014 there were 352,800 working.  In June 2010, there were 354,300 working.

You should avoid comparing October to June or November to March employment numbers – even on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Even with the smoothing there are big variances from month to month (see the chart).  So, you are still better off comparing the same month each year if you want a more accurate picture of what is going on.