More on Saint John’s leaky immigration hypothesis

I’ll pre-empt some emails and calls by further explaining my data for the column in the TJ today.  In it, I raise the issue of the discrepancy between the estimated annual new immigrant numbers to the Saint John CMA compared to the number of persons in the 2011 Census that said they were born outside of Canada.

These data come from two different sources.  The former is based on tax filer data and the latter from the Census.  However, when there is a big spread in the numbers it likely means a lot of immigrants flowed out via intraprovincial or interprovincial migration.

The table below shows the average annual immigrant estimates from the components of population growth table published by Statistics Canada for the years 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 and the number of persons living in the CMA in 2011 that moved to Canada between 2006-2011.  For the Freddy Beachers you are not here because we haven’t been able to get your urban area designated as a CMA.

*PS – “based on the 2006 Census” means that Statistics Canada uses 2006 as the base  year from which to estimate subsequent annual population changes.


Comparison of estimated annual immigration to actual immigration to CMA areas


Sources: Statistics Canada 2011 Census and Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 051-0047 Components of population growth by census metropolitan area.