It's The Economy, Stupid

The following data provides a little insight into the demographic tsunami.  I have tried to show this in different ways to illustrate the point.

The first table shows the young and over 65 population age cohorts in 1971 and 2010.  In 1971, the median age in Atl. Canada was lower than Alberta.

The second table compares the number of person collecting the child tax benefit compared to those collecting CPP – just between 2000 and 2009 (a relatively short period of time).  In Atlantic Canada we are approaching the point where we will have two persons on CPP for every one person collecting CTB.

The third table shows the ratio of CPP recipients to employment income earners – a variation on the dependency ratio theme.  In NS, there are four CPP recipients for every 10 employment income earners.

The final chart shows the employment rate.  While not shown in the chart, the employment rate among those 55 and up is lower in NS, NB and NL than all other provinces and in most cases by a fairly wide margin.

All the data is based on Statistics Canada tables.

 

 Changing Age Profile 1971 and 2010

NL	1971	2010	% Change
Under 20	256,577	106,015	-59%
Over 65	32,459	77,576	139%
Median Age	20.9	43.3	107%
PEI	1971	2010	%Change
Under 20	47,206	33,270	-30%
Over 65	12,404	22,230	79%
Median Age	24.8	42.1	70%
NS	1971	2010	%Change
Under 20	322,969	199,824	-38%
Over 65	72,849	151,160	107%
Median Age	25.4	42.8	69%
AB	1971	2010	%Change
Under 20	685,945	922,308	34%
Over 65	120,453	396,169	229%
Median Age	24.9	35.8	44%

 

Ratio of those collecting Canada Child Tax Benefit  to those collecting Canada Pension Plan (CPP)  – CTB recipients per 100 CPP recipients

	2000	2009	% Change
CAN	75.9	65.4	-14%
NL	84.9	53.2	-37%
PEI	77.0	57.2	-26%
NS	68.6	51.3	-25%
NB	76.4	54.9	-28%

 

Ratio of those collecting CPP to those reporting employment income – CPP recipients per 100 employment income earners

	2000	2009	% Change
CAN	27.3	31.1	14%
NL	30.2	38.8	28%
PEI	29.4	36.9	25%
NS	33.8	40.0	18%
NB	30.3	37.9	25%