Comparing October 2009 to October 2010 total employment is down 7,800 (seasonally adjusted) in New Brunswick. At what point does this become a concern?
The only other province in Canada with a declining employment year over year is Nova Scotia (-3,500) – most provinces are up quite strongly year over year. You will note, however, that 127,900 increase in jobs in Ontario is ‘concerning’ to some economists. Scale really matters. Adjusted for scale (size), New Brunswick would have had to add 8,000 new jobs (not lost 7,800) just to match Ontario’s ‘poor’performance.
It’s hard to say what is driving this. Certainly some of the stimulus spending has wound down but the assumption was the private sector would come back.
This is the fundamental macroeconomic challenge for New Brunswick. How do we see a private sector investment and employment rebound when the government will be contracting spending (federal and provincial I might add).
By the way, in case you care about such things, total employment in New Brunswick in October 2010 was 362,100 (seasonally adjusted). In October 2007, it was 362,600. Provincial government spending is up 19% in those three years.
“How do we see a private sector investment and employment rebound when the government will be contracting spending (federal and provincial I might add).”
Most likely we won’t see private sector investment grow much. Instead we will see small business tax cuts, followed by many of those small businesses closing shop.
2007 through 2010 figures are recession figures, and don’t really give a true picture. It would be better to cite, say, 1990-2010 figures, even if it’s not such a dramatic picture. It wouldn’t invalidate the argument.