A decade in review: population

I am going to try and do a little decade in review over the next few days and posts.   A lot of the 2009 data will not be out until well into 2010 but I’ll use the most recent data I can find.  I’ll start today with population.

Between the first quarter 2000 until the first quarter 2009, there has been a net out-migration of 14,000.  This is the interprovincial migration.

In 1999/2000, for ever death in New Brunswick, there was 1.26 births (the natural growth rate).  By the 2007/2008 timeframe, that had dropped to 1.11 – the second lowest in the country.  It’s worth pointing out here that people in Alberta age at exactly the same rate as in New Brunswick.  The main reason they have 2.3 births for every death is they are attracting young families and young workers to the economy. Out-migration from Atlantic Canada is primarily young people.

Birth to Death Ratio


































Source: Statistics Canada.

4 thoughts on “A decade in review: population

  1. Interesting stuff. Data like this cuts through all the spin and distortion created by politics.

    In McKenna’s last speech as Premier to the Atlantic Mayor’s Conference in March of 2004, he spoke about the Atlantic population problem and projected the issues. One of the scary facts he presented is that half of a citizen’s health care costs are consumed in their last six months of life. With an aging population there is little need for analysis and studies to project where heath care costs are headed in New Brunswick. This nasty combination of declining tax revenues (and transfer payments) and increasing health care costs has been projected for some time now.

    Of course McKenna’s proposed solutions involved reducing taxes which we’ve debated here many times. With that accomplished, we’ll see if the flood gates open. I think it will take much more than reduced taxes to attract the people we need. He also talked about energy exports as part of the solution (let’s leave that alone for the time being).

    The other component he promoted as part of our solution was research and innovation. The common arguments about commodity-based exports and globalization impacting manufacturing competitiveness were made. I think there is wide spread agreement about those issues.

    I believe he was right on with his point on innovation, one that has been made by many economists and economic developers. We are not going to compete against the cheap labour in Asia; we need to compete with innovation. New technology, new products, new businesses, new wealth. An effective innovation strategy is an important component of our economic development strategy; it will be interesting to see if innovation strategy is included in party platforms for the upcoming election.

  2. Out-migration from Atlantic Canada is primarily young people.

    Not “young people” as much as….”smart people.” And I don’t mean book smart/post-secondary education in every instance. Just people savy enough to realize there isn’t much here for any ambitious individual looking for equal opportunity, real economic freedom and career advancement without political strings attached.

    Plus, anyone we gain from the “have provinces” isn’t coming to Atlantic Canada to make it big, they’re coming here because they didn’t like the traffic, the cut throat competition…the live for work attitude. In other words, the people who migrate our way aren’t the cream of the crop. But some that have left us to go to them ARE (or have turned out to be).

  3. Young people is at least demographically verifiable..but ‘smart people’? I’d like to agree to that just so that every time Richard or somebody argues with me I can say “I left NB therefore I’m smarter than you…and not necessarily booksmarts:)”
    For most people life isn’t any different in NB than elsewhere, with the big caveat of whether you can find a job. Not having a job can lead to all kinds of social problems, which can also lead to young people leaving. So as David says, ‘its the economy stupid’.
    The idea that those who want a different lifestyle aren’t ‘cream of the crop’ is just bizarre. Who in their right mind wants to live to work? That’s the definition of a slave.
    As mentioned above, what is needed is innovation…we’ve KNOWN that for years, but see little investment there, and even less in NB than elsewhere. I know the scientific community, and they are NOT ‘driven like slaves’. When you rely on brain power you can’t be stressed out or exhausted, and employers in that field know that. Most of these guys are positively spoiled…up to the point of being fired when they take too much advantage of it.

  4. By the 2007/2008 timeframe, that had dropped to 1.11 – the second lowest in the country.

    Isn’t that third-lowest?

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