Those tricky polls

I see we are heading for an election in October (nationally). The Tories must have internally poll numbers that they like. With the rise of the Greens and first past the post, they may get to a majority. The NDP, Greens and even some Libs will split the left and centre left vote (and the environmentalist vote) – leaving Harper to walk right down the middle so to speak. I guess it comes down to Quebec (as usual). If he can pick up 15 seats or so in QC – he can get his majority.

But if there is anything to learn from old Bernie Lord it certainly is not to trust internal polls. If you will recall, I had heard before the provincial election in 2006 that the Tories had a double digit lead in their polling. In fact, it was widely speculated back then (seems like a long time ago?) that Lord asked Mesheau to step down (and not say it publicly) to force an election.

And where is he now? Actually, doing great building a huge house in Moncton and peddling influence – but I digress.

Anyway, it is true that not much sticks to Canadians (and New Brunswickers). That whole fixed election mantra should be a killer for Harper but it likely won’t be. The whole ‘democratic deficit’/centralization of power in the PMO that Harper railed against should be a problem for Harper but it likely won’t. The regional economic disparities that face Canada have gotten only worse since Harper took over (only because Ontario was added to the mix – Newfoundland is booming and Manitoba I hear is on the upswing). He hasn’t done much for New Brunswick (side deals in NS and NL) but then again, we are now only 2% of the population.

I don’t like quick elections. I think they are opportunistic at the expense of the taxpayer and the working of government. Groups like AC OA virtually shut down during an election and because of uncertainly don’t do much after an election until they can sense the will of the new guys/gals. I assume it’s the same with most gov. depts.