Hold off on the ticker-tape-parade

The TJ ran a very positive front page story on Saturday about the small population increase in New Brunswick over the last year. It was filled with gushing quotes from politicians.

It’s not time to roll out the ticker-tape-parade just yet.

The last three years saw the most net out-migration of any three year period since the mid 1980s.

In January of this year, there were 365,100 employed in New Brunswick according to Statistics Canada estimates. In May of this year, there were 362,900 employed.

So we could, and I estimate could, be witnessing some in-migration/immigration in expectation of jobs at a time with the job market is softening.

Or we could be at the front end of a strong employment growth cycle fuelled by the energy projects. But somewhere in my gut the forestry industry hit seems to me hasn’t filtered into the economic situation in New Brunswick just yet. I don’t know if it is the EI factor or the moving out west and sending money back factor or what but it seems that the NB economy hasn’t felt the full blow from the mill closures yet. I could be wrong.