Yikes. A kind of validation

The TJ is running a story today called “Province needs to grow like Alberta” which concludes that:

Self-sufficiency Analysis shows gross domestic product must outstrip Canadian average by 1.5 points to achieve 20-year goal. “To achieve self-sufficiency, New Brunswick will have to dramatically improve its productivity and obtain sustained GDP growth rates comparable to Alberta’s – at least in comparison to the current national average,” UNB’s Foord and McLaughlin say in the analysis.”

To me this is self-evident (and I discussed this in several blogs). I have said several times that Alberta-style growth would be required to meet the self-sufficiency targets.

But the other statement that I find interesting is:

Under that scenario [current trend] , “New Brunswick receives payments for hospitals, schools, colleges and universities, and in return offers up its youth as surplus labour for deployment in other parts of Canada and elsewhere,” say Foord and McLaughlin.

You say potato, I say potahto. This is my labour market incubator theory (or rather historical observation).

In fact, a cynic might say that this model works just find for the ‘have’ provinces. Pay us Equalization to cover the cost of developing tens of thousands of workers for their labour markets.

The opposite – a model where New Brunswick is actually attracting workers from Ontario, et. al. while still receiving Equalization – would like to lead to additional stresses on Confederation.

It would upset the apple cart so to speak.

But at least more and more folks are starting realize this stuff.