Finance Minister Jeannot Volpé is back on the road to conduct pre-budget consultations in New Brunswick.
Once again, the pre-budget consultation document is a marketing piece. They want to ‘consult’ New Brunswickers but they public a ‘consultation document’ that doesn’t even hint at the problems in New Brunswick.
So, the spirit of true consultation, I will reword some of the marketing spin to allow anybody that actually goes to these consultations to be armed with the real facts:
Spin document:
More jobs – Between June 1999 and December 2005, 31,800 net new jobs have been created in New Brunswick. In 2005, the unemployment rate stayed below 10 per cent for the second consecutive year, the best performance since 1976.
It’s the Economy, Stupid Revision:
From 1999 to 2005 (we don’t compare ‘June’ to ‘December’ because there are wide fluctuations in employment – even with the seasonally adjusted data) – using year end data – New Brunswick has 24,000 net new jobs. Canada as a whole had a 50% better job creation rate, Alberta 100% more, BC 60% more, PEI and Nova Scotia both performed significantly better than New Brunswick. New Brunswick’s employment rate is the third worst in the country.
Spin document:
Between 1998 and 2004, growth in New Brunswick’s economy, as measured by Gross Domestic Product per capita, ranked second highest among all Canadian provinces.
It’s the Economy, Stupid Revision:
This one annoys me more than all the others. First, they add in 1998 when they weren’t even in power because it was a very good year for the GDP. Second, they use ‘per capita’ data to take advantage of the declining population (you know, the GDP is a number so if the ‘capita’ is going down, this figure would improve). The reality is that GDP growth in New Brunswick only outpaced the national average once in the last six years and is forecasted to underperform the next three.
Spin document:
New Brunswick was second highest in Canada in annual average growth in manufacturing shipments and third highest in exports of goods and services from 1998 to 2004.
It’s the Economy, Stupid Revision:
I won’t comment on this one except to say that you know that I think reporting this is in extremely bad taste when all the increase is related to the Irving Oil refinery. Without those exports, NB has amogn the worst performance in exports.
Spin document:
The government has made record investments in health and senior care and education every year since its first budget. Since 1999, cumulative new funding for health and senior
care totals approximately $3.4 billion, and $1.2 billion for education. Over the same period, other government spending on a cumulative basis has decreased by $136 million.
It’s the Economy, Stupid Revision:
I don’t think there is much to say here. A 36% increase in government spending since 1999 (among the highest in Canada ‘per capita’) and a decrease in all spending except education and health. ’nuff said’.
Spin document:
New Brunswick also has the lowest provincial small business corporate income tax rate (two per cent) and the highest income threshold for that rate ($450,000) in the country.
It’s the Economy, Stupid Revision:
This is among my favourites. They brag at great lengths about their small business tax cuts and how great that is for business but the forget to mention (remember this is a planning process) that there has actually been a 3% decline in the number of businesses remitting payroll deductions to the government from Dec 1999 to Dec 2005 (i.e. actually have a payroll). Since 95% of all businesses are small businesses, this means the small business sector is shrinking, folks while it has increased significantly across Canada. This is a serious problem, folks. If the government has a stated policy of decreasing small business taxes to stimulate the economy and the number of small businesses is dropping – it ain’t rocket science folks.
In conclusion I think, once again, that the government is mixing its marketing messages. A pre-budget consultation document should state the reality – good and bad. It should ask the tough questions. It should point out the declining population, the tepid job performance, the almost no IT jobs since 1999, the fact that the balanced budgets have been fuelled by massive increases in Equalization, etc. Then folks could have a balanced discussion.
Lobbing a spin document that includes outright exaggerations will do nothing and invalidates the whole process – devolving it to a political exercise.
The Minister should have more sense than that. Not everything is political. Ultimately, New Brunswickers will figure out the truth and hopefully will express anger at the polls for being systematically duped by a large scale spin machine for six straight years.
I believe in the end that Lord and Volpe both would be more respected by New Brunswickers if they told the truth.