Don’t ask me for predictions

I write on these pages using stats, charts and graphs. I pretend to know a thing or two about economic development. But last night I got more confirmation that you shouldn’t ask my predictions when it comes to politics. I said a few weeks ago that with Premier Lord miraculously saving the Lepreau plant, Saint Johners would be eternally grateful. It seems not.

So I was wrong in my prediction – but my only consolation is that the Tories seem to have been wrong as well. They must have expected to win after removing Lizzie Weir with a plumb patronage appointment. They must have expected to win after immediately calling a by-election when they waited almost a year to call one in Shediac-Cap Pele.

Politics is a tough business. One day you’re riding a wave and the next your crashing into the pier.

Allow me one observation, notwithstanding my horrid track record. It seems to me that the politicians that are most able to win in New Brunswick are those that like to press the flesh, have long conversations with voters about nothing in particular and those that pretend to be genuinely interested in people’s comments. And it seems that ‘I’m Your Man’ Graham understands this while Stiff as a Board Lord doesn’t. The latter makes powerful and compelling speeches to 1,000 people in Toronto or Calgary but looks downright uncomfortable talking with three people he doesn’t know.

Finally, again I am shocked that the ‘We Say’ column in the Times & Transcript this morning wasn’t filled with an unflinching tribute to Premier Lord and his skills as has been the case on numerous occassions on days like this. I suspect, just a suspicion, that this strongly worded vote of confidence is coming tomorrow. Al Hogan usually needs a day or so to really wordsmith something like this.