Friday, August 31, 2007

Ouch. Tough times to be a PC.

It seems like a lifetime, but just over one year ago, the New Brunswick PCs were riding high in the polls (someone told me their internal polls gave them a 12 point lead on the Liberals) and hoping to cruise to an electoral victory.

The media was very supportive of Premier Lord and his government - yes, even the Telegraph-Journal was mostly kind (not compared to the gushing and swooning of the T&T but from an objective sense).

That was then. This is now. From an editorial in the TJ entitled "Where are N.B.'s Conservatives?":

At the provincial level in New Brunswick however; it [the Conservative party] is faltering - not for lack of potential public support, but due to the paucity of its ideas and weak leadership. Rather than championing a bold, alternative vision for New Brunswick, the party's interim leadership continues to lick its wounds in public, bitterly lamenting an electoral defeat that should not have been a surprise.

It's the time-worn tactic of blaming the media. Where are New Brunswick's Conservatives? Where is the party's intellectual strength, its dignity and courage, its sense of urgency and purpose? Is this really all that's left? If Conservatives are serious about wanting to be heard, they should take the initiative and speak.



Now, the truth is that the Telegraph-Journal has been quite harsh towards the Tories and mostly supportive of the Liberals since their election. But to have the media - and, I might add, the credible English language daily in this province - come down this harshly is, I would think, a major problem.

However, 12 months as we have seen is a lifetime in New Brunswick politics. If the Tories elect a strong leader that casts a bold vision for the province - and if the Liberals stumble - all will be forgiven so to speak - by the voter and the media. I, for one, hope the Tories elect a good leader. A good opposition with ideas of their own is a vital part of democracy - in my opinion.

As for Graham's Liberals, it is fascinating to watch the tide of support going up. From the same editorial:

New Brunswick is entering a period of industrial growth, economic revival and demographic change.

I would slightly modify that to read:

New Brunswick has entered a period of unprecedented expectations but no real concrete action. The refinery expansion and LNG plant in Saint John so gushed over by the Tele-Irving Journal were announced under the previous government. The Lepreau refurbishment as well. Everything else, in almost a year of being in office, is just talk.

We had another mill (Fraser) close this week. The example of Moncton in the the 1990s should be ample proof that the success of one city in New Brunswick will not be enough to drive economic growth at a provincial level. Saint John is heading into a period of strong growth - no doubt - but much of the rest of New Brunswick is a question mark.

Can Fredericton continue to see the growth of the public sector - with the government's desire to be self-sufficient? Much of Fredericton's growth in public sector jobs has been fuelled by increases in Equalization and now we are expecting to decrease Equalization.

Can Moncton continue to grow? The two sectors that drove the growth of Moncton over the past 15 years were call centres and manufacturing. Call centres are peaking and manufacturing jobs are stagnant. What's next?

What about Miramichi? There has been a build out of retail which has offset some of the mill losses but that is not sustainable. Swapping mill jobs for retail jobs is a deadend strategy.

What about the north? The opening of a mine is good news but the collapse of the Envirotech Park in Belledune is a sad outcome. Bennet Environmental aside, the general concept was good and the horsepower behind that park should have led to better things.

No, in my opinion based on 17 years of studying this stuff, I think the little retail and services bubble we are in right now will stabilize over the next 12-18 months. Saint John's growth should continue for 7-10 years. Moncton has a few more years of economic gas in the tank but past 2010 - particularly if the federal Conservatives move to that "per capita" funding formula for Transfer Payments - I am not optimistic at all.

My overall prediction for New Brunswick for the next ten years - barring a significant change in direction - is continued population stagnation leading to outright decline by 2010. Rural New Brunswick will decline even further. The cities will still consolidate some rural activity but will start to peeter off by 2012 or so.

I wouldn't bet on this because there are too many unknowns.



Advertisement




Thursday, August 30, 2007

Interesting salary source

If you are having a slow day at work or other free time, you may want to check out this site. It give current wage rates by a number of different categories (education, industry, occupation, age, etc.). The frequency of observations is quite low but nevertheless there is some interesting data that should feed into public policy.

For example, a lot of you folks love small business and chastise those evil large corporations that are sucking the life out of local economies (sarcastic emphasis added). I have reported to you in the past that small businesses offer considering less benefits (pensions, health plans, etc.) than large businesses. This chart shows the median salaries by company size. You will note that wages basically increase by the size of company. It is interesting to note that businesses with 20,000 to 50,000 employees (worldwide) have a low median wage in Moncton. That is because in this specific market, that segment is dominated by call centre companies which do offer lower median wages.



Another interesting chart relates to sector. I have said that New Brunswick (and Moncton) needs more higher paying private sector jobs. I think it is increasingly problematic to rely heavily on the public sector as a primary economic development tool. Look at the wages rates below by sector. This is an important chart for public policy makers because it tells us that by far the sectors that are contributing most to the tax base (government, health care) are the sectors that use the tax base. The median salary differential between a company employee and a Federal government employee in Moncton is 20%. Using the exact same source, the differential between a company employee and a Federal government employee in Toronto is 5%.

Actually, the trick is to get a Federal government job in Moncton. You are paid higher (relative to the overall median) and your cost of living is lower :-)



Advertisement




Alec Bruce and I apparently share the same opinion of our New Brunswick's New Premier (TM).

Only the indefatigably optimistic Shawn Graham could interpret a comment like "we never say never" as definitive proof that his genial negotiating style is winning friends and influencing people among the recalcitrant ranks of the federal Tories.

He is talking about the Petitcodiac River restoration project and the fact that the Feds are already hedging on their part of the funding of this restoration.

It does seem like Shawn Graham has essentially become the Anti-Bernard Lord in his approach. Either that is inbred or his advisors see that as a better way to build longer term connection with the electorate.

Lord had little interest in working with Maritime Premiers (he had a better rapport with Manitoba's Premier) - Graham has been all over that file. Lord wasn't overly interested in shaking hands and kissing babies. Graham loves this. Lord didn't spend a lot of time directly interacting with the minions in actual New Brunswick communities. Graham loves to drive around, smile and mouth the priorities of each communities as the priorities of his government. Lord was outspoken in his criticism of the Liberal Prime Minister. Graham is in a love fest with the Conservative Prime Minister.

But exploiting Lord's perceived weaknesses is not necessarily a good approach. You can say you are committed to the Petitcodiac but unless something gets done, you will breed the kind of resentment that Lord attracted. The same with Saint John. The same with Miramichi. Fredericton. And all other cities in New Brunswick that are feeling like the government is on their side.

Eventually, the government has to make hard decisions. Decisions that are unpopular. Decisions that burn through political capital.

One hopes that overall, voters will judge your government as successful. But there is no way that 'indefatigable optimism' is a substitute for leadership and results. It is a good precursor to leadership and results but it is not leadership and results.

So, my advice to Graham is to keep up the big smiles, the endearment with New Brunswickers. Golly gee. But eventually, he will be judged on whether he can break the cycle of declining population, increasing dependence on Equalization, rural decline, dealing with serious challenges in the forestry sector, etc.



Advertisement




Wednesday, August 29, 2007

I took my harp to a party, nobody asked me to play....

....So I put the darn thing away.

That's how I feel sometimes when I see this stuff. When I hear talk about spending potential 'gateway' funding on electricity infrastructure to the U.S., I just get frustrated.

What about the inland port? What about rail infrastructure? A transportation gateway is just that. Spending the money on infrastructure to make it easier for NB electricity to be used for U.S. economic development doesn't make much sense to me.

I believe in the concept of an "Atlantic Gateway". A Halifax columnist unearthed a quote from 200+ years ago where some Crown representative sent a memo to London saying that Atlantic Canada should be the 'gateway' of trade from the U.K. to her Majesty's colonies in North America.

I think it still makes sense today. But filling potholes or putting up transmission lines is not the answer. Making sure that New Brunswick directly benefits from the 'gateway' is the answer.



Advertisement




Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Back to bizarro

In the last federal budget, the government announced that it would be moving its health and social transfers system to a "per capita" model where in order to get more funding, your population would have to be growing. This was a demand of the Ontario government to address the fiscal imbalance.

At the time, the media in New Brunswick barely covered this. I think it was mentioned briefly and one newspaper columist said this would be a problem.

Now PC Opposition leader and Health Minister Murphy are said to be pushing for more health funding as boomers begin to retire.

It seems to me that this is missing the bigger point. The Feds have just said they are moving to a funding formula that will flatline health funding to New Brunswick (because our population is stagnant) and our guys are dutifully asking for more dough for health.

What they should have been doing is fight hard against this per capita funding model for health and social transfers. An issue that it seemed to me was almost not even on the local agenda for concern.

Better than that, we should be looking at better ways to generate own source tax revenue to lessen our dependence on Federal funding overall. While I have no problem with transfer programs as a concept, I believe increasingly this leaves us at the mercy of the winds. Political winds that is.



Advertisement




Monday, August 27, 2007

The diaspora problem

A number of folks have commented on my last post about the East Coast Connected initiative. After a 90 second perusal of the website (and reading the Herald article), I suggested this might be a good way to link into the diaspora. Most of the comments (posts, emails and a couple of telephone calls) provide good points.

Some have said that this initiative is more about sucking talent out of Atlantic Canada rather than 'circulation'. Some say it sounds like an initiative to make Atl. Canadians more at home in the big city. This may be true. Who knows.

But the bottom line, for me, is this. Something like 550,000 people have moved out of New Brunswick since 1976 (some have moved in but this is the out-migration total). I suggest (and you mostly would agree I submit) that the single most popular reason to migrate out of New Brunswick (and ATLCAN) is lack of economic opportunity.

So, in general, keeping these folks in some form of 'loop' for the 'if' and 'when' they would be candidates to come back here is a good idea. There are an increasing number of wage competitive jobs (adjusted for cost of living) available down here in financial services, IT, health care, etc. And my experience is that a lot of ATLCANers want to move back here when it comes time to raise their family.

So, I think this type of networking process is highly valid (without knowing the specifics) and its up to NB companies and NB governments to ensure that it in fact is a two-way street. This should not be about brow beating ex-Maritimers to move back out of some sense of guilt or about greasing the skids for the folks moving to Toronto (remember, Toronto has a net out-migration of Canadians over the past 10 years - its populationg growth is being driven by immigrants - not migrants from other areas of Canada).

From the self interested perspective this region, it should be a venue to get access to the diaspora when these good jobs come available and are not being filled by local residents.



Advertisement




Sunday, August 26, 2007

Dispatches from the road: NYC

I decided to bring the kids to NYC for an extra long weekend. I hadn't been here in eight years and wanted to get back to see Ground Zero, et. al. If there is such thing as a global economy, than New York must be its hub and its exemplar. We saw a $250,000 toy in FAO Schwartz and a couple of blocks away, a couple of hundred people waiting in line at the local soup kitchen.

But it's an amazing city - economically, culturally, ethnically. We heard at least eight different languages scrolling through the radio dial and ate lunch at an Italian restaurant in an Italian neighbourhood - the real deal - the owner still greets his guests in the language of the old country.

However, New York is made up of the world's diaspora. And as I was travelling in the subway my mind was mulling how tiny little places like New Brunswick could benefit in some way from this economic juggernaut.

Then I just stumbled upon this. There's a good overview of the East Coast Connected program here.

One guy calls it a "Brain Circulation" initiative rather than just the well known brain drain.

I think it makes some sense. I can't seem to figure out who's funding it, however.



Advertisement




Friday, August 24, 2007

Goin' down the road - for toilet paper

A Times & Transcript report today summarizes a new Statistics Canada report shows New Brunswick drivers clock an average of 18,558 kilometres a year per vehicle -- more than any other Canadians. The article speculates some of the reasons for this.

I have two points:

1. Drivers in British Columbia drove their vehicles the least. British Columbians are the most physically active population in Canada. Guess which province is the second least active in Canada. You guessed it.

2. I have always grumbled about this. New Brunswickers have either the lowest or second lowest 'average commute distance' to work (among Canadian provinces). At the same time, we will drive two hours to save 25 cents on toilet paper by purchasing 500 rolls at Costco. It seems that Statistics Canada is confirming my angst.

Don't get me wrong. I am sensitive to global warming. But when I looked this a few years ago unemployment rates in communities 20-30 minutes from Moncton were as high as 18% while Moncton employers were facing worker shortages.

My advice? We should get of our collective arses and walk more. And if there's a job in the next town over. Gas up.



Advertisement




Thursday, August 23, 2007

It's not me

Ouch. Nothing like having the same name. I can assure you that I am not the David Campbell that has just been fined a pile of dough for breaking New Brunswick securities laws.

Your humble servant's most controversial activity is grumbling about over zealous newspaper editors.

Oh, and maybe juicing up some numbers to make my point.

No, I might also be the target of the Inquisition because of my clairvoyance.



Advertisement




Rest easy, our saviour has arrived

The CEP is coming to the rescue. From a press release yesterday:

Northern New Brunswick is in the midst of an economic crisis that is likely to get a lot worse, says the Atlantic Region Vice-President of the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Union of Canada (CEP) and his Union plans to do something about it.

"We in the CEP have no intention of sitting idly by while communities like Miramichi suffer the consequences of mill closures and cut backs. We intend to lead a campaign to find a better way - as a province - to deal with the loss of thousands of good paying jobs."

"This train for change is leaving the station," Mr. Cronk said. "The Miramichi event on Sunday is only the beginning of our efforts to build a better way. We think the revitalization of the economy must become the number one priority for all levels of government and they need to open the process for input from all stakeholders."


I don't know. Maybe this is a good thing. Maybe the union will be able to put its deeply vested interests aside.

But that comment from a union rep. back in the 1990s still rings in my ears. He said, refering to the REPAP mill that was going through a crisis, "we'll shut this plant down before we take a dollar an hour pay cut".

I wonder if there has been a little learning since then.



Advertisement




Revenge of the fragile Premier

I can't remember his name but it was one of that string of British Columbia Premiers who didn't even last one term due to scandal or early election. Anyway, this guy was livid when UPS decided to consolidate its call centre activity from across Canada into New Brunswick. He threatened to take McKenna to some tribunal for 'raiding' B.C. jobs.

That was then, this is now.

Now B.C. is positioning itself as a 'nearshore' location for U.S. call centres. A position that should be held by New Brunswick.

Or at least it would have been 'back in the day' - as they say.

I never thought I would have seen the day that British Columbia is more aggressive about economic development than New Brunswick. But with the Pacific Gateway, the animation sector development and now the 'nearshore' development, the day has come.

I'm getting old.



Advertisement




Medical tourism

Every time Dr. Brian Day burps, there are dozens of articles about the woes and perils of 'private' health care. But have you ever heard once anyone talking about the potential of private health care as an economic development driver?

Health care is the fastest growing industry in North America. Six of the top 10 fastest growing occupations over the next 20 years are expected to be in the health care sector.

A number of offshore countries are beginning to make medical tourism a targeted economic development sector and companies in the United States including Companion Global Healthcare — via BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina — are offering health insurance covered medical tourism programs.

Countries like Singapore, Thailand, India, Korea and Costa Rica pour money into health care facilities in preparation for medical tourism to take flight.

One expert cited in this article believes medical tourism will go mainstream because, while the United States has advanced health care, it is debatable whether or not it has the best service and the best access to care for most people.

Instead of whining and complaining, wouldn't it be neat if New Brunswick could become a nearshore medical tourism option for U.S. citizens? We could build a world class health care system for a market of 300 million people. We could invest some of the 'profits' from that system to ensure that the public system in New Brunswick is very good.

Now, most of you are laughing at this right now. But I urge you to think this through. Why would this be so hard? The industry is high wage, highly skilled. We do have the ability to attract some health care workers from the U.K. and Quebec because wages are lower there compared to here. In addition, the buzz we could build from being a medical tourism destination could lead to attracting other health care sectors including remote diagnosis (reviewing xrays from afar), telecare, research, etc.

Or we could continue to ignore the fastest growing industry in North America because we are all tied up in knots about the word 'private'.



Advertisement




Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Elephant in the room

I know that a lot of people that read this blog are appalled by government incentives to industry. I respect that opinion. In fact, I would fully support a full agreement among all North American jurisdictions to refrain from any cash or targeted tax-based incentives. However, we don't have that and we can't just ignore facts like this.

The Ontario and Canadian governments put $123 million into about a $530 million Chrysler plant expansion. That works out to be 23% of the total capital cost of the project. We can't do a 'per job' calculation because there are no new jobs associated with the expansion (at least announced).

Now, some say this 'protects' the 4,800 jobs. This is called 'retention' of jobs. This is somewhat of a slippery slope because the same logic is being used in Newfoundland and other areas to bail out pulp mills. Eventually, this looks like the government bailing out companies with bad business models to retain jobs and no new growth.

But, really, that's not my point here.

My point is to reiterate ad nauseum the theme of this blog. The NB government talks about self-sufficiency and then turns around and funds BNB at less than half of its funding level a decade ago (expressed as a percentage of government spending and including funding programs). The feds talk about the importance of regional development and similarly have been decreasing significantly spending in this area (as a percentage of overall program spending).

We talk about attracting people (migrants and immigrants) and then spend among the least in Canada in this area.

Ultimately, governments put their money where their priorities are. It's that simple.

As an example, local officials have been calling for a 'convention centre' in Moncton for at least eight years (that's the first time I heard about it) and not a nickel. Every Premier, MP and MLA has mentioned it but none have raised the funds. Meanwhile they have funded new bridges, a new stadium, etc. The reality that few want to acknowledge is that there really is no interest in funding a convention centre at the provincial or federal level. It's that simple.

The principle can be applied broadly.

If you want economic development, fund and structure it properly.

If you want to attract people, fund and structure it properly. Cripes, we have had a population secretariat since 2003 and only now we are doing 'consultations'? No, there have been numerous studies done since 2003 and numerous consultations. Now we go through another round. I'll be happy when they get down to saying we are going to do these three things, allocate this much funding and expect/measure these results.

Other than that it's just more smoke and mirrors - acting like you are doing something when you are really doing almost nothing.



Your daily tee hee hee moment
Canada too small for CPP investment fund; commits $573M to European fund

Remember my constain complaining that almost none of our RRSP, pension and government pension contributions is invested in New Brunswick to help grow our economy here? It goes without saying that the Canada Pension Plan doesn't have a nickel here either. But I had to laugh this morning when I read that the CPP is saying that Canada is too small a market for all their investments and its putting money into fuelling economic growth in Europe. In some ways, Canada is a big New Brunswick, I guess.

But the truth is more stark. These pension fund managers are not tasked with using our pension monies to support economic growth here. They are tasked with growing the investment - plain and simple.

Not so in Quebec where a significant portion of public pension monies is allocated to support economic development in Quebec - and in my opinion it hasn't done too badly.

The bottom line is that if just 10% of our RRSP and pension monies were invested in New Brunswick it would represent billions of dollars worth of growth capital.

It will never happen, but it does make you stop and think.



Advertisement




Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Consulting while Rome burns

An article today about the NB consultations on the labour market:

The Government of New Brunswick will bring together various stakeholders to build a province-wide strategy to help address the labour market imbalances. "Together we will develop and implement an action plan containing solutions to issues in key areas of mutual concern with respect to the labour market," said Minister of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour Ed Doherty. The process, which will include a combination of Internet-based and face-to-face meetings, will be facilitated by Don Lenihan, provincial advisor on public engagement, in collaboration with other departmental officials from the Labour Market Analysis Branch.

Participants will be able to access an online forum early next week to discuss and help find solutions to several key issues, such as skills and skills shortages, reducing labour market information gaps, planning for the human resource needs of the future, identifying and targeting barriers to work, and the importance of raising awareness of our changing labour force, culture and values.


Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I just talked to someone that has a husband in Alberta and his company is coming back to recruit in New Brunswick. Last year they recruited over 300 from NB and PEI and have set similar targets for this year.


Changing labour force, culture and values? What is that? Sounds like a bunch of mandarins advised by a bunch of social scientists.

Excuse my cynicism, but the Lord government 'consulted' to death on red tape, forestry, health care, education, research, yadda yadda yadda. And that worked out for us.

Eventually, someone is going to have to get busy. Here's my 'input':

We need high paying jobs. Go out and find some. Look to Nova Scotia's attracting of RIM and financial services back offices (all jobs $60K to start and up). Then put an immigration plan in place to go get the people to work in this jobs (and align education).

Are we short of tradespersons? Ramp up NBCC training - but target foreign workers - I know a bunch of folks who immigrated here via the NBCC - came for training - stayed for the weather (ouch).

But for the folks that are whining because they cant' find workers at 8 bucks/hour anymore - that's a deeper, more structural problem. You can study this until your ears fall off but ultimately, McGuire is right - they are going to have to pay more. Even if you attract immigrants - they will leave and find higher paying jobs elsewhere in Canada - this happened in PEI and the farmers were demanding that the Feds enact legislation to force foreign workers to stay put.

The days of New Brunswick's competitive advantage being very low wages are over. When manufacturers were paying $8/hour and had 60 cent dollars (US), low wages were a major advantage. Now, these guys are going to have to pay a lot more, and by the way provide benefits and they are at 95 cent dollars. Competitive advantage is going to have to be more about doing things better and more efficiently.

Don't get me wrong, it should still be cheaper to do business here - because the cost of living is lower - but 5%, 10% maybe - but not 50%.

So, study, consult, online forums, sensitize people to our changing values - what does that mean?

At the end of the day, we need to get the economy primed and moving in the right direction and - as in the case in Alberta, Ontario, BC, etc. - people will come. We may have to do some people attraction stuff. We may need to be better at immigration. But we need to be better at economic development first.



Advertisement




Monday, August 20, 2007

Talking points

I see in the TJ that economic development folks are getting a little restless. Talking about the upcoming skilled labour shortage summit, several economic guys are stressing that it has to be more than 'talk' and actually result in tangible action. In my opinion, this is the on the ground view of most economic developers. There has been spectacular talk but not much action in the past year.

The TJ is also blaming the Feds for the lack of immigration in New Brunswick. The point they are making is that the system is not designed to attract tradespersons. While this is a real problem, it represents about 1% (in my opinion) of the issue. There are much more important issues. A number of other provinces have 'deals' with the feds on immigration. New Brunswick does not. New Brunswick, as a province, does not have a targeted immigration strategy. In Nova Scotia, officials are going to Costa Rica to attract accountants directly into the financial services back office sector - real, good paying jobs. New Brunswick's immigration 'budget' is essentially nothing. There may be one or two persons involved in immigrations. Quebec has 100 employees working directly on immigration.

The Daily Gleaner is running a story about a psychic and his prediction about 'self-sufficiency'. Keith Atkinson, a clairvoyant originally from Ottawa with 30 years of experience predicting the future, says 'yes.' "It will reach self-sufficiency by 2026 at least, and if Ottawa co-operates, it could happen before then," Atkinson said at Fredericton's annual psychic fair held on the weekend.

Even the psychics are already blaming the feds if we don't reach self-sufficiency. We already have a fall back position if we don't become self-sufficient. Blame the feds. Sounds like the same excuse from the last 140 years. Eventually, we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

And as for the psychic, remember that Rasputin was advising the Romonovs as they were in the midst of collapse. So I wouldn't be too interested in the word of a modern day clairvoyant.

The CBC is reporting on India's AV Group expanding their mills in Nackawic and Atholville, near Campbellton, so the facilities can produce dissolving pulp, used in making rayon. The world demand for that fibre has increased, while the market for others, such as cotton and polyester, is falling.

Two points. One good and one bad. On the good side, this could represent one model for adding value in a new way. On the bad side, I still remember the owner of the Nackawic mill forewarning that he may need more government money to survive. He said this on the day the mill reopened.



Advertisement




Sunday, August 19, 2007

A good example

I have been calling for years for the provincial government to publish a good economic 'scorecard' which no government has done. The Lord government had a 'report card' but it was basically a marketing document where they tarted up a few stats to make them look good.

I have reported here on a number of province/states and their good report cards. Here is Alberta's. Now, the reality is that two of the best economic report cards are BC's and Alberta's - two provinces doing well.

But the point remains that the public should have the good and the bad. All on the table.

I'd like to point out a few stats in the Alberta report card that you never read either in the press or government publications in New Brunswick.

1. New Brunswick's population is still dropping. Slowly but still dropping.

2. Ontario has net out-migration. This a consistent trend. It may be counterintuitive but the reality is that Ontario attracts the majority of immigrants - which tilts them to strong population growth.

3. Employment growth in New Brunswick Year to Date (YTD) has been the worst in Canada. Not my number. Take a look for yourself, Mr. LeBreton.



Advertisement




Saturday, August 18, 2007

Lord to run McGill health care centre

Is there another Bernard Lord that we don't know about? Did McGill hire the wrong guy? The TJ is running a story today that McGill recently hired the former premier to oversee its new health care institute for strategic analysis and innovation. The institute's goal is to build a sustainable health care system. As a scholar-in-residence Lord will develop strategic papers on health care policy. He will also continue as a senior counsel at the McCarthy Tetrault law firm in Montreal.

Huh? Bernard Lord as a scholar on health care policy?

Here's his track record:

-Under Lord, New Brunswick was only one of two provinces to rule out even looking at private health care options.

-Health care expenditures under Lord rose at a rate similar to Alberta, BC and Ontario - provinces that added hundreds of thousands in new population. In New Brunswick, the population stagnated. But the health care expenditures raised at roughly the same rate as fast growing population provinces.

-Under Lord there was almost no innovation - we are behind on nurse practitioners, teleheatlh, overhead consolidation, etc.


So, out of control health care spending relative to no population growth, virtually no innovation and completely against even looking at private options.

Sounds like an expert to me.



Advertisement




Friday, August 17, 2007

More on language-based immigration targets

How exactly does one set a language-based immigration 'quota'? The Telegraph Journal keeps harping on this story - and it feels an awful lot like an 'us' versus 'them'. Acadian groups support it and guys like Percy Mockler oppose it (and the Enterprise network).

People from France aren't emigrating - at least not many. The ones that end up in Canada are overwhelmed by Quebec (look at how many government officials from Quebec work in Paris trying to attract immigrants, tourists and business). People from other French speaking countries may and I stress may be an opportunity but historically speaking there is not much there.

So, let's say we need 10,000 people per year through immigration. That means we need even more because we know that a significant percentage start here and move.

You have to be logical about this.

Having said that, I think New Brunswick should set up camp right next to Quebec in France and 'compete' for immigrants, tourists and business. It's just that we never really have. The T&T ran all kinds of stories about how former Premier Lord was loved in France - charming, was the word I think they used. And yet, 35 immigrants from France to Moncton. Not last year. Not last decade. Total. All time.

If Premier Lord was so charming, why wasn't more done to actually get results in France?

But I digress.

We need a serious, well thought out approach to attract Francophone immigrants but we need to be realistic that the majority - probably vast majority - will come from non Francophone (and non Anglophone) countries. So, when immigrants arrive, they need to be taught both languages.



Advertisement