Monday, July 31, 2006

Dis-Service New Brunswick

Is it just an inevitability that government can't provide good customer service? I'm in line at the SNB in Moncton.

For years I have used SNB and have always been very impressed at the speed and efficiency.

Not any more. The past four times I have come here it has been anhour wait or more. As I blog, I am 62nd in line and there are 3 of 16 wickets open. It will be an hour's wait or more.

They are trying to export the SNB model. I hope they leave the actual human interaction part out.

Maybe it was too good to be true. A gov service that is timely and efficient.



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Let's blow this popsicle stand

Interesting article in the T&T this A.M. (I can't give you a URL because you have to pay). It's about the migration of workers to Alberta. In usual style, Al Hogan doesn't mention the Premier by name at all and gently addresses the issue by having his journalist insert quotes like:

But Jody Carr, Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Training, says the migration of New Brunswickers to the prosperous Western provinces is nothing new.

Still, it's an issue that Al Hogan has covered only sporadically - considering we have had net out-migration of people for 14 straight years.

Then Al's worker bee goes into great detail about all the wonderful efforts that the province is undertaking to keep people from moving to Alberta and just when you think he is about to put a cherry on top (something like "We love you, Bernie!"), the journalist dips in an Alec Brucian direction and digs up some actual verbal frontline footage from the Miramichi. For a politician, this is blood curtling stuff:

But Walsh [Miramichi resident] says those projects require workers to leave the rural communities to find work in more urban centres, and the government is doing little to help replenish rural communities that can't compete with resource-rich Alberta. "They (government) need to do something," she says. "The graduates, where are they going to go? Even working at McDonald's, you could barely survive on your own. I feel sorry for the young people, because there's just nothing for them here." In Walsh's small community Of Wayerton, 20 kilometres (13 miles) north of Sunny Corner, she can count half a dozen families that live nearby whose children have decided to call Alberta home.

And there's more:

Edwina Matchett, manager at Allison's XTR station in Trout Brook, says she's concerned about the dwindling workforce when it comes to keeping her business afloat. Still, she understands the region's people are looking for more out of life. "You can't take it from them - I'd be blowing this popsicle stand too," she says.

Ouch. How dare Edwina call New Brunswick a popsicle stand? Didn't she read her Prosperity Plan Update sent out a few months ago? Apparently not. Somebody send her a copy. We've had record this and record that. Record investment in blah blah blah. Lowest blah blah in 50 years. Highest blah blah in 100 years. If Edwina doesn't see this propserity surely she is the only one?

As for me, I happen to like popsicles.



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Sunday, July 30, 2006

The Meek Shall Inherit... the inkwell

Who is this Jim Meek? He is described as a freelance writer in Halifax (and works for Bristol Communications). He has been serving up a steady diet of thought-provoking articles dealing with the lack of economic development in the region.

This one on Saturday talks about a controversial report that looked at the long-term effects of pogey in New Brunswick and Maine.

Their conclusions?

The authors look at five decades of data in the study – entitled The Long-Term Effects of a Generous Income Support Program: Unemployment Insurance in New Brunswick and Maine, 1940-1991. Kuhn and Riddell conclude that in Canada – with its generous (un)employment insurance (EI) programs – not working became an attractive "lifestyle" choice.

Successive reforms to the EI system made part-time work more and more attractive. By 1990, New Brunswickers could earn (about) 80 per cent of full-time wages by going to work for a mere 30 weeks. If you only wanted to put in 20 weeks on the shop floor, you could still take home 70 per cent of full-time wages.

This was nice non-work if you could get it. And it wasn’t that hard to get. Thirty per cent of "New Brunswick’s workers received some UI benefits in 1990. This corresponds to about six per cent for men in Maine, and three per cent for women."

Meek's conclusion?

More important, Canada’s EI system has entrenched a culture of dependency in rural areas of this region. And anyone who thinks that the politics of pogey is dead and buried should be reminded that the Martin government "improved" benefits for seasonal workers in 2005.

And what has the mean-as-Bush Harper government done about this? It left the Martin reforms in place, and extended a pilot program that provides an additional five weeks of benefits to seasonal workers. This is Canada, after all. And there’s always another election to be fought.


Who is this guy?



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Donald Savoie getting cranky?

I like to read through the Halifax Chronicle-Herald - mostly because it's a breath of fresh air compared to the local rag here in Moncton.

There was an interesting article about the need for economic growth in Atlantic Canada. But this is not your average puff piece:

Indeed, Donald Savoie’s frustration is now palpable when he discusses the region’s problems and prospects. Savoie is a University of Moncton professor who has spent a career studying and writing about regional development, most recently in the superb book Visiting Grandchildren.

And what does he think of the attempts of the Maritime provinces to consolidate their efforts and push a common agenda for growth? "It’s a pile of bullsh*@$ the past 10 years," he said in a recent interview with Stephen Maher, The Chronicle Herald’s Ottawa correspondent.

In essence, Ogilvie and Savoie are prescribing a favourite aunt’s remedy for almost any ill. "There’s nothing the matter with that kid," she was fond of saying, "that a good, swift kick in the rear end wouldn’t cure."

So, here's a couple of observations.

1) How come more and more of the region's top thinkers are getting more and more cranky about the total inaction in the area of economic development (Savoie most of all) and we have to read about it in Halifax papers?

2) At what point, exactly, do politicians wake up to all the yelling at them (admittedly Lord in New Brunswick gets very little of this is NB papers) to do something, anything to support economic development?


I understand why guys like Savoie are so frustrated (to the point of using colourful language). In Savoie's early days 1970s, 80s - there was much more effort put on regional development - even though population was still increasing. Now, population is declining, and there is arguably the lowest level of government-initiated economic development in New Brunswick in the past 30 years.

And New Brunswick's collective indictment? Well, in the latest opinion poll the NB Conservatives have a fairly good lead. After 7 years, New Brunswickers are apparently quite happy with declining population, retrenching traditional industries, significant increases in government spending (increasing dependance Equalization and other Fed transfers) and a complete lack of direction for our future economic growth.

Well, not all New Brunswickers feel this way. There's at least one guy - Donald Savoie - that's not very happy.

I have to recall an old song. I heard Sting sing this once but I'm not sure it's his:

I've been down so long
Being down don't bother me
I've been down so long
Being down don't bother me
I'm gonna take all my troubles
Drown 'em in the deep blue sea

Finally, a good theme song for New Brunswick.



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Saturday, July 29, 2006

Now we know an election must be coming

There's a story in today's Daily Gleaner about the province putting 50 new government jobs in Edmundston. That's a sure sign that an election must be coming soon.

I have said before that where it makes sense, I think the government should spread around the jobs. Whether we like it or not, government jobs are the best paying and offer the best benefits of any job in New Brunswick (on average) so it does hardly seem fair to concentrate them all in one community.

However, there has been little effort to do this in the past seven years. I suspect there are less government jobs (I use the term widely here to include health care) in many northern communities today than in 1999. Just a guess, however.

To recap the case for an early election:

MLAs have been seen canvassing where they haven't before (NB Politics rumour)
Big time goodies budget
Governmetn jobs in the north

Should be fun and provide lots of fodder for the blogosphere.



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Fixing the fiscal imbalance

The Premiers couldn't agree this week on a unified position on fixing the 'fiscal imbalance'. There are basically three broad approaches that were put foward (and hybrids of all of them):

The fiscal imbalance is between the 'rich' and the 'poor' provinces. Ottawa needs to give more to the poor provinces by beefing up the Equalization - adding all 10 provinces in the calculations as well as resource revenue. This position is strongly advocated by New Brunswick and Quebec and although saying little publicly I suspect Manitoba and PEI as well. Daulton and Ralph are strongly opposed and interestingly so are Newfoundland and Nova Scotia because of their 'resource' revenues. If these were included, it's my understanding that NL and NS might see a drop in Equalization payments.

The fiscal imbalance is between the Feds and the Provinces. Ottawa needs to give more to all provinces for health care, education, etc. either through long term transfers or allowing the provinces access directly to the revenue (i.e. reduce Fed tax and increase prov tax). Daulton is pushing hard for this. He claims that beyond Equalization, other provinces get considerably more per capita from the Feds in other areas (education funding is one he talks about alot, [funny he never mentions that Ontario is the largest recipient by far of federal R&D dollars as well as federal government employment - but I digress].

The fiscal imbalance is between government and citizens. This was put forward by Gordon Campbell (no relation) who is pushing for broad federal tax cuts to the citizenry.

Now, in each all provinces would either be winners or losers. Broad-based tax cuts would hurt Lord's chances of getting more Equalization and Ontario's chances of getting more general Transfers.


Which thinking will win?

In my opinion, Stephen Harper can't afford to ignore Lord's position because it is also Charest's position - and Quebec is key to a Conservative majority. On the other hand, if Daulton gets screwed - Ontario could be in political jeopardy. The west? I am not sure Harper cares. Alberta is booming. British Columbia is booming - back to 'have' status and getting stronger. However, including 'resources' revenue in Equalization might be a problem in both AB and BC - they are quite sensitive about such things.

So, back to my prediction on this.

Harper will try and please everyone (with the possibility of NL and NS). He will make Equalization a little more lucrative (for Quebec) and he will increase some transfers (for Ontario). He will leave off the table 'resources' revenue. Further, I think it will be positioned as a short term fix until the federal government is in the position to tackle it in a more concrete way (i.e. Majority).

Lord will say he is happy so will Charest. Daulton will complain but lightly. Alberta and BC will do the same.

The wheels will grind on.

PS - guess what 'option' our friend Al Hogan was pushing this AM in the T&T?

Gordon Campbell's national tax cuts. That would certainly put the screws to his buddy Bernard's plans for more Equalization. Think it through, Al. Lord wants a formula that would guarantee New Brunswick more pogey and you want the Feds to cut their ability to provide that pogey. Check with your masters on the 2nd floor of the Centennial Bldg. next time.



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Friday, July 28, 2006

Where power lies

This is interesting.

CHICAGO (Reuters)—Chicago's city council Wednesday passed one of the nation's strictest "living wage" laws, requiring large retailers to pay escalating hourly wages and benefits.

Opponents said they would challenge the ordinance in court, arguing that it unfairly singles out retailing giants with more than $1 billion in sales, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp.

The ordinance, which was approved by a 35-to-14 vote of the city's aldermen, would require large retailers to pay a starting salary of at least $9.25 an hour and benefits of $1.50, escalating to $10 in wages and $3 in benefits by 2010 with cost-of-living increases beyond that.


I have always wondered if the differences between U.S. and Canadian municapality authority has any impact on outcomes. In the U.S., cities can levy income taxes, vehicle taxes, sales taxes, etc. etc. etc. It would seem, based on this article, that at least one U.S. city can actually set wage rates.

Canadian municapalities have far less direct control over their destiny.

I still don't know if this means anything.



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40% is a lot

Maclean's magazine's online poll asks the question:

Should the fiscal imbalance make tax revenues continue to be transferred from rich to poor provinces to ensure equal public services across Canada?

At 8 am this morning, 40% said no.

Now, they don't say the number of responses (you can only vote once) and online polls are ephemeral at best.

But.....

Without Equalization, New Brunswick's economy would collapse. We would not be able to pay for the most basic government services.

40%.

I do sense a mood shift - in the national media and elsewhere - Lord's insistance in our 'constitutional' right to more Equalization just may elicit a backlash in the ROC.

My advice hasn't changed. Tell the rest of Canada that we have a plan to reduce our dependence over time on Equalization.

Here's a hint: It's not the '5 in 5'.



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Thursday, July 27, 2006

Pop Quiz: What do rural NB and Europe have in common?

I'm thinking of transforming this blog into a gossip rag. You know, keep the theme but reorient around juicy gossip.

You see, I am getting more and more little emails with interesting tidbits of information.

For example, I just heard today that a European developer is looking at setting up a massive housing/golf development somewhere outside of Moncton and targeting the European market. As I understand it, hundreds of Europeans would own these houses and live in them at least part of the year. Apparently this developer has done this stuff in other markets and thinks that this might be a new frontier for this type of development.

I don't know how real this deal is but it would be good news - for the airport, for the retail sector, for the construction sector, and on and on.

Europe and rural NB? Sprichst du ökonomische Entwicklung?



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Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Work, work, work!

Check this out:

Survey says grads prize balance, ethics over pay

Canada’s newest college grads prize work/life balance over all other benefits, according to a new survey of university students born between 1979 and 2001. The flexible work environment they covet includes a casual environment, flexible hours, incentives for things like better maternity leave and appealing locations.

After work/life balance, Millennials (as they are called) said they wanted to work for a socially responsible, industry leader with high ethical standards, according to Universum’s survey of 3,465 students from 27 Canadian institutions.

“[T]he millennium generation is a lot less interested in financial stability and a lot more interested in the importance of companies that have high ethical standards, where they have an opportunity to contribute to society, which are things that were never that important before,” Rachele Ferri, a spokesperson for Universum, told the Winnipeg Free Press.

Whereas salary is the most important compensation issue for undergrad students in Canada, health care occupies that spot for American students. Still work/life balance is pre-eminent for job seekers in both countries, Ferri says.

Canadian students also indicated they would most like to work in Toronto (29%), Montreal (18%), and Vancouver (15%).

This is Universum’s first survey of Canadian students. The company does similar surveys in 29 other countries, which cover 160,000 students from 800 academic institutions.


Kids these days, huh? They want a good work/life balance. They are noble - ethics and social responsibility. And they just wanna have fund.

Cripes, I feel old. When I got my first real job after graduating, incidentally for the NB Department of Economic Development, I worked my arse off - 60-70 hours a week. I took it all in. I wanted to earn my keep. I was fascinated. I learned everything. When I was 23 years old, a VP of UPS told me he slept with the proposal I had written for them under his pillow (proposal to attract them to NB).

Work/life balance? At 22?

I weep for the future.

Oh, by the way, the point of this post. Canadian students also indicated they would most like to work in Toronto (29%), Montreal (18%), and Vancouver (15%).

Kids want to get to the big city. Young families want out (at least some). Check your targets, when looking at future labour market needs. Instead of trying to force new local grads to stay through coercion (recent NS debate), we should be more aggressively targeting kids post-sowing-their-wild-oats phase. And maybe after they've had a little real world experience.

Just a thought.

Forgive the rant from an old fart.



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In this case, no news is good news

You know the old story, any publicity is good publicity? Probably not in this case.


Vigilante violence shakes serene N.B. tourist town
SHAWNA RICHER
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

Grand Manan, the pretty archipelago in the Bay of Fundy, is typically tranquil, best known for its pudgy puffins and mouth-watering lobster.
It's a sleepy tourist destination and, for those who call it home, a peaceful place where people are used to leaving the doors unlocked at night.

But residents' anxieties over creeping drug problems in the community sparked a violent, vigilante attack against suspected dealers on the weekend -- and many are concerned that others will take the law into their own hands.

"For the most part Grand Mananers are rational people," Mayor Dennis Greene said. "But I believe that people felt they had taken all they could take. I hope this was a one-time thing. But I believe it could happen again."

What did go down in the midnight hours last Saturday was more fitting of the urban jungle or a Martin Scorsese film than of a fishing community that lures tourists with its serene seashore.

As many as 50 residents, ranging in age from twentysomething to fiftysomething, got together and launched an attack on a group of about 10 locals who the vigilantes suspected of dealing drugs from a house in the tiny community of Castalia, on the island's eastern shore.
Participants on both sides brandished guns, baseball bats and knives. The battle rumbled over four hours into the early morning. Three of the island's four RCMP officers were on duty and tried to break up what turned into a raging street riot, but they could not stop the vigilante gang from setting fire to the suspected drug den. As volunteer firefighters worked to douse the flames, the vigilantes hurled rocks at them; the house burned to the ground and more than a dozen people suffered minor injuries during the fights. Gunshots were also fired, though no one was hit.


Toronto's elite now think that rural New Brunswick is in chaos. Sheesh.



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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Alec Bruce syndrome

You have heard about the super bugs? Those viruses that are immune to treatment and propagate ferociously? I have identified a new one. It's called wakin'up-to-reality disease otherwise known as Alec Bruce syndrome.

Peter Moreira, a writer for the Halifax Chronicle Herald has it for sure. Check out the tell tale signs in his column:

N.S. growth rate should deliver big wake-up call

It’s a pretty dismal performance when you dissect the numbers.

ScotiaBank last week estimated Nova Scotia’s GDP will grow by 2.2 per cent this year, less than the 3.1 per cent for the nation as a whole.

That means Nova Scotia is tied for last place with Prince Edward Island. For 2007, the bank sees some improvement, with Nova Scotia rising to 2.4 per cent, tied with New Brunswick for fifth place, but still shy of the national rate of 2.8 per cent.


[he then rattles off a series of data worthy of an It's the Economy Stupid citation]


So here are three simple conclusions to draw from all of these numbers:

1. We’re poorer than most of the rest of Canada [richer than NB - DC].

2. The rest of Canada is getting richer than us [except NB - DC].

3. And we’re relying more and more on the rest of Canada to pay our bills [not as much as NB - DC].

What’s astonishing about this is the complacency in the face of so much evidence that we’re falling behind the rest of Canada. [sounds like NB - DC].

There is no indication that politicians believe we in Nova Scotia have to actually do better than the rest of the country to close the gap. [sounds like NB - DC].

And there is every indication that they have no intention of implementing policies to help close that gap. [sounds like NB - DC].

OH, the sweet irony. The agonizingly sweet irony. Al Hogan just got done running a long piece citing the same report only for Al it was justification that New Brunswick is booming! Now, I have heard that one man's junk is another man's treasure but cripes, does Al have to live in the garbage?


Now, did this guy just take an Alec Bruce blog and make the numbers look better?

I report. You decide.



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Like a rolling stone

The Conference Board recently released a report on the importance of Canada's 'hub cities'. The problem, at least if you are a NBer, is that there was no NB city in the mix. Only Halifax.

Not having a dominant urban centre does pose considerable challenges for New Brunswick. None get on the map - in a serious way.

I monitor media references to cities in my day job for a client and Halifax gets 100+ references per week on average. Moncton gets a dozen or so and they are almost always about sports or weather. Stories about business growth or other industry news is almost non-existent. Fredericton and Saint John are about the same.

Where am I going with this? I am trying to loosely link Mick Jagger to economic development. I was watching a U.S. wireless company advertisment last fall featuring the Rolling Stones - playing in Moncton. Nobody else knew that but apparently the ad firm thought the footage of Moncton was the most impressive (those rising stands). Moncton was in the news - widely - for a period of time because of the Stones.

New Brunswick cities are handicapped by their size to be sure. But they still need to promote themselves widely and do things to get exposure. Fredericton has milked that wifi network for all its worth as one example.

All this to say, congrats to Halifax for winning the Stones lottery this year.

Ian Fowler and the guys/gals over at City Hall, sharpen your pencils and find the next big act. The monster truck show at the colesium does not cut the mustard.



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A lament for high school teacher political consultants

Before I've even had coffee this morning. I read in the Telegraph-Journal a commentary from a Saint John-based high school teacher with advice for Shawn Graham on how to win the next election. His strategy? This is cut and paste:

The easiest and most obvious strategy would be to choose a few important issues on which the current government is failing New Brunswickers and offer some real solutions. Important issues are not the ones which a few people make the most noise about. They're the ones that affect the most lives.

Right on. Just get a blog, why don't you?

But, the fun stops there. Here are his recommendations:

Tackle global warming (I'm not kidding).
Drop the $2500 Cap to Soft Tissue Injuries (equally not kidding).
Put Up Some Wildlife Fencing (not kidding, seriously I'm not).
All of these could fall under the heading of "just do the right thing."

Now, I have freely admitted that I am not a political strategist nor a soothsayer (remember my predictions?). But come on. Am I so out of line with reality? Global warming? Not to be disrespectful - I do thing environmental stewardship is important but #1 on the 'ways to get re-elected' list?

Soft tissue cap? Look it. New Brunswickers need to have a mechanism to sue when appropriate. But just about everyone knows that the soft tissue issue was being abused and was killing the insurance rates of the average New Brunswicker. I am fully aware that the media and the Liberals want to make auto and every other type of insurance an issue but I can't for the life of me see why - other than crass politics. And I object to crass politics - even if it gets you elected.

Wildlife fencing. Do I need to comment on this?

"Just to the right thing". Do I need to comment on this?

When did high school teachers become political advisors with a circulation of 35,000?

Here's a thought. Let's pick someone from an occupation with absolute job security and a great pension. Let's situate them in the cocoon that is the Kennebecasis Valley and then let's have them speak on behalf of the New Brunswicker in the Miramichi who has witnessed population decline for two decades and is facing the potential of a mill closure. Or how about speak for Saint John? Saint John, a wonderful town, just getting real economic impetus from a number of positive initiatives. Let's derail that and focus on wildlife fences.

Sigh.



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Nova Scotia Film Development Corporation

Do we have one of these in New Brunswick?



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The wrath of Al Hogan

Check out the 'Words to inspire' section of the Times & Transcript today:

Times & Transcript
News - As published on page d7 on July 25, 2006

Words to inspire

People who oppose the authorities are opposing what God has done, and they will be punished. Rulers are a threat to evil people, not to good people.- Romans 13.1-3, CEV.
(Courtesy off The Canadian Bible Society)


Now everything comes into focus. Those opposing the provincial government's economic develpment approach are bound to be 'punished'.

One takes the liberty to assume that Paul was referring to good government?

PS - the 'off' in Courtesy off is a cut and paste from the T&T. Apparently Al Hogan's tight monitoring of editorial comment does not extend to spelling and grammer.



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Monday, July 24, 2006

Getting the ball rolling

This blog is in response to a fairly critical but well penned response to a recent blog about attitude in New Brunswick. If you want the context, read it here. I wanted to bring out the response to the front because it is fairly long.

I admit that this blog and in fact many related blogs have a fair amount of critical commentary. The reason for this is simple. For the few hundred that read this blog and the thousands that read Alec's in the T&T and online, it is important to point out - either by wit, irony, cynicism or just plain fun the problems facing this province. Then others can chime in with their points of view. I won't rehash all of that but the reality is that NB is in trouble. It's a slow burn, admittedly but a burn none the less. We are falling behind the rest of Canada on over 90% of the economic and social statistics that I have tracked over the years ranging from the obvious - population decline - to the obscure - the percentage of the population with advanced degrees and we are slipping.

So, what I would like (and I think many of these guys like Alec who are bringing voice to many people out there in the system that can't speak - economic developers - educators - municipal officials - etc.) is for our government to clearly recognize our challenges. Further, I would like them to clearly articulate them to the populace. Yes, I would like them to park politics for 10 minutes and speak clearly to New Brunswickers. We are in trouble. Every year that goes by our population drops and our need for Equalization increases. Every year. And it is likely this will get worse because of the structural shifts to our traditional industries. We need to replace our dying industries with new ones. In one sentence that is it. PEI has built an neat little aerospace cluster. NB nada. Nova Scotia has offshore oil & gas and a reasonably growing IT sector. NB nada (except for the last throes of a call centre sector). Be clear about this one point because I'll go to my grave believing it: Equalization increases will not last forever and it is fundamentally flawed because it rewards economic failure. The single fiscal goal of the province should be economic self-sufficiency - even if that goal is 30-40 years out or more.

So, long winded answer - to get the ball rolling I would like to see four things:

1) A massive education campaign to inform the populace of the economic realities and the consequences of not acting. I would combine this, obviously, with a strong message of hope and resolve on the part of our government and community leaders.

2) I would double if not triple economic development spending right away. Further, I would attempt to negotiate a new deal with Ottawa and the Haves that would tie Equalization to economic development. The arguments that these two are not linked is just plain silly. Equalization rewards economic failure. I would ask that Equalization levels be locked in for 10 years regardless of the successes of economic development. I would petition the Feds to match dollar for dollar every dime NB puts into economic development.

3) I would go out into the highways and byways of the province and gather input on what types of jobs and industries would people like to see in the province. What would convince our kids to stay here and work and what would convince highly talented ‘come from awayers’ to move here? Then I would pick a few growth sectors and I would invest in them to beat the band. I would hire top notch sales guys/gals and send them to India, Ireland and to the uttermost parts of the earth seeking out companies and people that could be interested in investing in New Brunswick. I would align college and university training to the strategic sectors (cripes, New Brunswick has at least three firms doing leading edge stuff in Internet and wireless security and Dal-friggin’housie University attracts the world leader in Internet security to a run a research program? – That SOB should have been wooed to UNB - shame – but I digress).

4) Finally, I would try to create a new partnership with the media. In Ireland, the newspapers and media take a much more growth-oriented approach. I think in the 21st century media-saturated culture, that alternate reality becomes our reality. So rather than fight it I say join it. I would encourage and hope that the media would be highly critical where required and supportive where required but above all, it would put the future of this province on its agenda of at least the top five main issues. I would like to see localized shows such as Venture and others – maybe on Rogers community TV or something. I would have the Premier do ‘Fireside Chats’ on a monthly basis updating people on the progress and on the challenges.

This last point is critical. Because points 1-3 could lead to political ruin for any party adopting them. It might result in deficits. At least in the short term. It might result in some serious pushback from the civil service as you try and change stuff that hasn’t changed in decades. It might result in less funding for health care (heaven forbid) and it might even require more taxation (he wields the death blow).

Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Got to kick at the darkness ‘til it bleeds daylight.

When you're New Brunswickers in a dangerous time.

-slightly bastardized Bruce Cockburn.

What's the alternative? The dopey, sleepy do-nothing reality of today? 14 straight years of net out-migration and I have never read about it in the media or in government publications. We bleed our best and brightest talent and make token efforts at immigration? Think Tank after Think Tank publishes reports saying the Feds should encourage even more out-migration from New Brunswick - reports funded by the Feds. Can we just stroll merrily along as these fundamental changes occur and hope that the Equalization cheques keep coming in?

And don't be fooled by those experts that say we need a 'structural' change in the New Brunswick economy - which is code for urbanization - which is code for collapse of the rural population. We need urbanization to be sure - but not at the expense of our dozens of great towns and villages. I think its a shame to watch community's built over generations go down the tubes because of bad government policy - the very government that by definition is the representative of the people.

We need economic growth. I once did a quick and dirty analysis of what it would take to make NB a 'have province'. I held costs constant and just added the number of workers and taxes paid. At that time, we would have had to double the size of the workforce - and keep costs constant (an impossibility). Now, it's worse.

So forget about eliminating Equalization - in the short term. But we should be able to stop its growth. We should be able to nurture new industries to replace the old.

Shouldn't we?



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The hidden cost of living

Most would agree, though not all, that it is cheaper to live in New Brunswick than in Ontario, Alberta or BC. Obviously, this depends on your income, where you live in province, etc. but on average it would be cheaper to live in NB than Ontario. To put it another way, a person making $50k/year in Ontario would have less disposible income than in New Brunswick.

I have looked at the data and for the most part this does hold - particularly in the larger urban centres. Housing costs are more. Entertainment costs are more (one presumes because there are more entertainment options). And, yes, even insurance costs more in Ontario than NB - check this I'm right. Property taxes tend to be more as a result of higher valuations. Etc.

But it would seem that for out of pocket health care costs - NBers get the shaft. From today's Globe & Mail:

If you live in B.C., had heart surgery and were prescribed medically necessary drugs to aid in your recovery, you would pay $200 annually. If you live in Saskatchewan, you would pay $800 for the prescription. If you live in New Brunswick, the same drug treatment would be as high at $1,400. Only one in 10 Canadians has insurance that covers 100 per cent of out-of-hospital drug costs.
In fact, for the most part, the richer the province, the more lucrative the coverage of health care costs. Remember Canadian's on average pay out of pocket (or with insurance) for 1/3 of all health care costs. If these start to get out of control in New Brunswick, this will erode any cost of living advantage.

But having said that, there's no easy solution. Bernie has already plowed 75% of all new money into health care since he came into office (according to gov. data).



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