I have just completed a graph that shows the dropping population growth in New Brunswick since the mid 1970s. As of 2001, we are now formally into population decline in this province.

Donald Savoie, Université de Moncton professor and one of Canada's foremost thinkers on the issue of regional development, was quoted today in the Telegraph Journal as saying that equalization payments to New Brunswick are an 'awful drug' that "destroys the soul and eventually will destroy the region". Savoie is absolutely right. When the Premier of New Brunswick states that all new equalization monies will go to fund health care and seniors programs he is making a terrible mistake. What the province desperately needs is more investment, more job creation and more wealth generation. I have said for a long time that a large percentage of equalization funding should be specifically earmarked for economic development initiatives. Otherwise, with a shrinking population base and declining industries, we will continue to need more and more of the taxes collected in the richer provinces just to provide basic government services.

I have a morbid chuckle everytime there is an announcement such as this: $100 million more welfare for New Brunswick while at the same time the Federal government announced $100 million in funding for the expansion of a Ford manufacturing plant in southern Ontario. More handouts for us and more handups for them.

Anybody who follows politics in Canada knows that a new equalization formula was worked out between the Federal and Provincial governments this week. Equalization is a process where the Federal government distributes tax dollars collected in 'have' provinces to 'have-not' provinces so that the level of public services delivered can be similar in all provinces. From the media reports, it looks like New Brunswick will get approximately $100 million more per year. The 'have' provinces were not overly happy about this. A commentator on CBC radio the other morning outlined his case why the 'have' provinces should be happy with this new equalization formula. The rationale, as he stated, is fairly simple. You - the 'haves' - send us your money and we will send you our kids - our best and brightest - to work in your offices, factories, etc. It seems to me that he was on the brink of tears as he described this painful exodus of the youth of the Maritime provinces. To me this sounds like fairly good logic. We raise them, pay for their education, get them ready for the workforce and - just when they are ready to be productive members of society - we send them off to Ontario, Alberta or British Columbia to make taxes and then send some of that back in the same way Grandma might send her Grandkids $20 at Christmas.

The problem with this is that it is 1970s or 1980s thinking. Back then, you could hardly avoid meeting people in Toronto or Calgary that would refer to having relatives 'back east' or down in the Maritimes. However, during the 1990s, 90% of all the new settlers into Ontario were from places like China and India - most likely not a crowd that is overly sympathic to the plight of Atlantic Canada. In fact, they for the most part would be far more likely to want to send 'equalization' payments back home to China or India than... where did you say Moncton was again?

So as the demographic landscape in Canada changes, there will be less and less interest among the general public to keep bailing out Maritime Canada. Hopefully for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland oil and gas revenues will help. As for New Brunswick? I was saddened when I heard the Premier emphatically state that the new equalization money will go into health care and senior's programs. In the early 1900s, the provincial governments negotiated REDAs (regional economic development agreements) or COOPERATION agreements that put millions into regional economic development. In fact, former Premier McKenna used that money to build the call centre industry in New Brunswick. So, in the 1990s we went to Ottawa to beg for dollars to help fix our economies. In the 2000s we have given up on the economy and we beg for more welfare. So much for 'pulling ourselves up by the bootstraps'......

As this is my first blog, I’ll start by introducing myself. My name is David Campbell and I live and work in Moncton, New Brunswick. I have had a long standing interest in the economy and economic development of the province and most of the subject matter covered will deal with these issues. But as this is a blog, I will also deviate from time to time on any subject of interest. This blog will not be a political rant nor a general critique of the media. But, on occasion, both our political leaders and the media will be targets when I feel they have not provided the public with an accurate assessment of an issue related to our economy and its economic development.

I’ll chastise the provincial government for openly bragging about cutting all spending except in the areas of health care and, ostensibly, education without mentioning that much of that ‘other’ spending is absolutely vital to the long term economic health of this province. I’ll complain in a long winded way about the shortsightedness of lobbying for more of Alberta’s tax dollars to prop up our economy (through Equalization) while cutting spending to programs that would help us become more economically self-sustaining. I’ll grumble about the Prosperity Plan which called for reducing the GDP gap with the rest of Canada (it has gone up) and increasing R&D spending (it has gone down). But, the Premier states on as many occasions as he can that the Plan is working! Perhaps he should quit politics and start advising other governments on how they can cut economic development-related spending, divert all time and effort into health care, watch the province sink into the first sustained population decline in its history – and still be able to confidently claim that ‘the Plan is working’.

I’ll also target the federal government for, it seems, giving up on Atlantic Canada. During the last election, the federal government made two major economic promises - $500 million for the auto sector in southern Ontario and $300 million for employment insurance top ups in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. I’ll point out, politely, that their priorities are inverted. Atlantic Canada needs the $500 million for industry development and the $300 million? Maybe we’ll be able to save that for other priorities. I’ll inform you that the Federal government spends $600 million per year in New Brunswick to keep people from working (EI payments – mostly to seasonal workers) and less than 5% of that amount to help people find work and to grow the economy.

The New Brunswick media will not escape my ramblings. I’ll wonder in amazement how they can write dozens of articles about insurance premiums going up by a hundred bucks and none about the population decline in New Brunswick – the first, by the way, decline in New Brunswick since Confederation. On a monthly basis when the latest labour market survey is published, I will protest the media’s characterizations of the positive health of the New Brunswick labour market when the province, in fact, has had the third worst job creation record among the ten provinces in Canada since 1999.

Last but not least, I’ll turn the pen on us, the public, for not holding our governments or the media accountable for the economic crisis facing our province. Threaten to close our hospital? We’ll scream, protest, write angry letters and try and bring down a government. Insurance rates going up? Why that’s the government’s fault. Potholes in the road? Shame on you. On any number of relatively small issues, we get all fired up. But when it comes to our economy – population decline, tepid job growth, no increase in real income levels for over a decade, out-migration of our best and brightest, closure of our major industries, second highest unemployment rate in all of North America – we give government and the media a pass. A political insider once told me that economic issues consistently poll fifth or lower as a priority in public opinion polls in New Brunswick. That is why nothing is done. That is why our politicians put the focus anywhere but on our economic health.

So, today, it begins. We start a public dialogue about our economy, economic development and the role of government, the media and ourselves. Maybe someday when the pollster calls, we will say resolutely that the economic wellbeing of myself, my community and my province trumps all other issues and then, maybe then, we will begin to see our governments get serious about creating a strong economy in New Brunswick that will, somewhat ironically, provide the tax base needed to support public programs such as health and education and make us less dependent on the tax dollars of our neighbours.